As I mentioned in my previous blog, the recently completed Vodafone/3 merger in the U.K. sets a recent precedent for a four to three mobile merger. This matters, as many telecom operators in Europe are keen to see further intra-market consolidation and are likely to use many of the same arguments/approaches when seeking the necessary regulatory approvals. Indeed, Vodafone Group has been saying that the EU should draw on the lessons learned from the merger.
Let’s quickly remind ourselves of some of the factors that contributed to the approval of the Vodafone/3 merger. Vodafone and 3 have pledged to invest £11 billion in their combined network. Their combined market share is comparable to that of the largest operator — O2. Also, the U.K. performs relatively poorly compared to its peers on mobile experience and EE has historically dominated the U.K. mobile experience landscape.
We'll now look at some of Europe’s largest markets with four and five MNOs one-by-one, considering market share, 5G standalone access deployments and the mobile experience (as reported by Opensignal). With the latter we’ll examine for each country whether one operator has been dominating Opensignal’s national award tables and whether mobile experience in the country as a whole is significantly behind compared to its regional peers (based on Opensignal’s Q1 2025 Global Network Excellence Index results).
France — similarity to UK: low
France was a three-player market, but that changed in 2012 with the arrival of Free Mobile. The merger-math is awkward, given that the two smallest operators SFR and Free have a combined market share of 42.3%* according to TeleGeography, while the largest operator, Orange, has a market share of 30.5%. This is in sharp contrast to the U.K. as the two smallest operators’ combined market share is only slightly larger than that of the market leader. SFR lost market share in 2024, while Bouygues has been gaining customers. Looking at our latest mobile network experience report for France, Orange performed strongly, winning 10 out of 14 awards outright and it has a long track record of similar success across previous reports — somewhat mirroring EE in the U.K.
France is ranked 21st in Europe & Central Asia in our Global Network Excellence Index, improving to 4th when we just look at large markets (whereas the U.K. is 11th place).
While it’s not impossible for the French market to undergo further consolidation, it would be difficult without dividing up one operator’s assets and customer base between more than one of its peers. This theory is likely to be put to the test sooner than later, as Altice is considering selling a controlling stake in SFR. One challenge is that SFR and Bouygues share 4G networks in some municipalities.
Italy — similarity to UK: high
Italy is home to five active MNO brands. However, the Vodafone/FastWeb merger has completed and these two brands are likely to consolidate down to one in the near future. During Swisscom’s Q4 2024 earnings call, Walter Renna, Fastweb’s CEO said “...Vodafone and Fastweb brands are positioned on the high end of the market. So probably in the future, it makes no sense to have two brands [in] the same space.” He added that they will assess all available options and take a decision that will only “only impact from '26 onwards”.
As for shrinking down to three operators, according to TeleGeography’s figures, the ‘merger math’ is pretty awkward. Merging the two smallest operators — Iliad and WindTre would result in an operator with a share of 40.2%, versus Vodafone/FastWeb’s 31.4%. That’s much less ideal than the split of market shares seen in the U.K.
However, things aren’t much worse when we look at TIM and Iliad — a more salient match-up given reports that Iliad is keen to merge with TIM (though more recently Iliad has said that there are no talks on this subject) — their combined market share comes to 42.9%. Meanwhile, Pietro Labriola, TIM’s CEO, has written a short book on the need for greater consolidation — The Missing Connection.
Vodafone has won the most awards in each of our four most recent mobile network experience reports, though it does not dominate the award table to quite the same extent as EE does in the U.K. Switching to the Global Network Excellence Index, Italy is ranked 40th overall, while the U.K. is in 48th. Like the U.K., Italy is quite behind both France and Germany.
In short, there’s scope to use the Vodafone/3 playbook in Italy, given how it does internationally, the lack of 5G standalone and Vodafone’s relatively strong grip on the mobile network experience landscape. The only true sticking point is the awkward ‘merger-math’.
Romania — similarity to UK: high
Romania is a four player mobile market where 5G standalone access is largely absent. M&A activity is already underway, as Vodafone and Digi are seeking to acquire Telekom, splitting its assets between them. Telekom is the smallest player by market share, according to TeleGeography (14.3%), while Vodafone and Digi follow with 25.2% and 26.7%, behind the market leader Orange’s 33.7%. In our two most recent Mobile Network Experience reports, Orange and Digi Mobil win the lion’s share of awards, with Orange narrowly winning the most awards and earning the title of Best Network in our latest report. In addition to having the smallest market share, Telekom also lags on Coverage Experience with a score of 4.1 on a 10-point scale, while its rivals’ scores are all above six.
Both Vodafone and Digi have promised to improve the mobile experience for consumers, while also protecting MVNO access and continuing Orange’s access to cell site colocation services. Speaking of mobile experience, Romania ranks 25th across Europe and Central Asia in Opensignal’s Q1 2025 Global Network Excellence Index, putting it just behind Germany (23rd) and Czechia (24th), while the U.K. is in 32nd place.
Taking in all of the above, especially the fact that Vodafone is involved and it’s easy to feel a sense of déjà vu — many of the same arguments and approaches that Vodafone/3 used in the U.K. could be reused by Vodafone and Digi in their drive to merge with Telekom.
Denmark — similarity to UK: low
Denmark is a four-player market due to the failed merger between Telenor and Telia (now Norlys) back in 2015. However, these two operators share the same network via their TT-Netværket joint venture. This means the market is closer to a three player market from a CAPEX perspective and a repeat of the failed Telenor/Telia merger wouldn’t result in significant CAPEX savings.
TDC is the market leader in terms of market share by an impressive margin, 42% versus Telenor’s 23.4%. The two smallest players’ market shares — Norlys (14.9%) and 3 (19%) — mean that a merger between the two wouldn’t create a massive new player. However, in that scenario working out what to do with 3’s radio access network (RAN) would be tricky, given Norlys and Telenor’s network sharing deal. It could potentially lead to Denmark being left with only two radio access networks — assuming that Norlys (and or Telenor) were to integrate 3’s into TT-Netværket’s.
In contrast to the U.K., in Denmark there is no run-away winner for mobile experience. Our latest mobile network experience report on Denmark has a heavily divided awards table and the most awarded operator has changed over the last three reports. Also unlike the U.K., Denmark does well in international comparisons, being ranked 3rd globally in the Global Network Excellence Index.
In light of the above, Denmark’s competition authorities and telecom regulator are in a markedly different position to their U.K. counterparts. There is definitely room for improvement on 5G standalone access, but the urgency for significant investment in it is diluted by the country’s strong international performance.
Sweden — similarity to UK: low
Sweden is effectively a four-player market, given the tiny presence of state-owned and business-focused Teracom Samhallsnat. Unlike what we’ve seen in the U.K., the split in market shares between the four main operators, Telia (33.1%), Tele2 (27.1%), Telenor (21%) and 3 (18.8%), means that no operator can absorb another without instantly becoming dominant. Another potential issue is that Telenor and Tele2 have a network sharing agreement through their Net4Mobility joint venture.
In contrast to the U.K., the Swedish mobile experience landscape is extremely competitive, with Telenor narrowly picking up the most awards in our latest report. In addition, the country is no slouch on the international stage, placing joint 6th globally in the Global Network Excellence Index.
To summarise, many of the arguments used by Vodafone/3 in the U.K. aren’t applicable to Sweden. Its strong performance in our Global Network Excellence Index dampens down the appeal of heavy investment in 5G SA, as any push for investment in this area would need to be underpinned by the new (and commercially most unproven) use cases that SA can support.
Two steps forward, one step back?
While the bulk of this blog has focused on consolidation, some European markets are going in the opposite direction. For example, Germany has recently become a four-operator market due to the entry of 1&1. Similarly, Portugal gained a new mobile operator in November 2024 — Digi. In addition, while the EU Commission has previously signalled its desire for more cross-border consolidation, in some ways the market is going in the opposite direction. For example, Vodafone Group exited the Spanish market in 2024 and in January 2025 completed the sale of its Italian operations to Swisscom.
There’s a reason why I have not covered 5G standalone access networks in this piece in much detail. There have been commercial launches in France, Germany, one in Denmark (TDC) and a very limited one in Sweden. In the U.K., both EE and Vodafone have launched 5G SA, but in the case of Vodafone, it and 3 still felt the need to set a goal of covering 99% of the U.K.’s population with a 5G standalone access (SA) network with their combined network to sweeten the deal from a regulator’s perspective.
One size doesn’t fit all
The Vodafone/3 merger succeeded because the stars aligned. That won’t be easy to replicate — but in markets like Romania or Italy, the playbook might just fit.
* All market share data is from TeleGeography as of December 2024
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